Nothing to do with me – it’s all the brains and research of the rather massive Gartner Corp.
They do some great thinking every year and produce this Hype Cycle guide and although the Hype Cycle presents technologies individually, Gartner encourages enterprises to consider the technologies in sets or groupings, because so many new capabilities and trends involve multiple technologies working together.
It is the same with great marketing. Often, one or two technologies that are not quite ready can limit the true potential of what is possible. We found that a little with augmented reality – which rapidly shot up the peak of hype a couple of years ago. But it is seen by many as gimmicky. What was needed was the rise of the smart phone and one killer app which would do everything AR, perhaps Blippar with augmented reality may well do this.
Gartner refers to these technologies as “tipping point technologies” because, once they mature, the scenario can come together from a technology perspective.
Some of the more significant scenarios, and the tipping point technologies, need to mature so that enterprises and governments can deliver new value and experiences to customers and citizens include:
Any Channel, Any Device, Anywhere — Bring Your Own Everything
The technology industry has long talked about scenarios in which any service or function is available on any device, at anytime and anywhere. This scenario is being fueled by the consumerization trend that is making it acceptable for enterprise employees to bring their own personal devices into the work environment. The technologies and trends featured on this Hype Cycle that are part of this scenario include BYOD, hosted virtual desktops, HTML5, the various forms of cloud computing, silicon anode batteries and media tablets. Although all these technologies and trends need to mature for the scenario to become the norm, HTML 5, hosted virtual networks and silicon anode batteries are particularly strong tipping point candidates.
A world in which things are smart and connected to the Internet has been in the works for more than a decade. Once connected and made smart, things will help people in every facet of their consumer, citizen and employee lives. There are many enabling technologies and trends required to make this scenario a reality. On the 2012 Hype Cycle, Gartner has included autonomous vehicles, mobile robots, Internet of Things, big data, wireless power, complex-event processing, Internet TV, activity streams, machine-to-machine communication services, mesh networks: sensor, home health monitoring and consumer telematics. The technologies and trends that are the tipping points to success include machine-to-machine communication services, mesh networks: sensor, big data, complex-event processing and activity streams.
Big Data and Global Scale Computing at Small Prices
This broad scenario portrays a world in which analytic insight and computing power are nearly infinite and cost-effectively scalable. Once enterprises gain access to these resources, many improved capabilities are possible, such as better understanding customers or better fraud reduction. The enabling technologies and trends on the 2012 Hype Cycle include quantum computing, the various forms of cloud computing, big data, complex-event processing, social analytics, in-memory database management systems, in-memory analytics, text analytics and predictive analytics. Which is great news as we are working on one of those as a SAS for the SME market – think marketing person in a box.
These tipping point technologies are the ones that will make this scenario accessible to enterprises, governments and consumers include cloud computing, big data and in-memory database management systems.
The Human Way to Interact With Technology
This scenario describes a world in which people interact a lot more naturally with technology. The technologies on the Hype Cycle that make this possible include human augmentation, volumetric and holographic displays, automatic content recognition, natural-language question answering, speech-to-speech translation, big data, gamification, augmented reality, cloud computing, NFC, gesture control, virtual worlds, biometric authentication methods and speech recognition. Many of these technologies have been “emerging” for multiple years and are starting to become commonplace, however, a few stand out as tipping point technologies including natural-language question answering and NFC.
What Payment Could Really Become
This scenario envisions a cashless world in which every transaction is an electronic one. This will provide enterprises with efficiency and traceability, and consumers with convenience and security. The technologies on the 2012 Hype Cycle that will enable parts of this scenario include NFC payment, mobile over the air (OTA) payment and biometric authentication methods. Related technologies will also impact the payment landscape, albeit more indirectly. These include the Internet of Things, mobile application stores and automatic content recognition. The tipping point will be surpassed when NFC payment and mobile OTA payment technologies mature.
The Voice of the Customer Is on File
Humans are social by nature, which drives a need to share — often publicly. This creates a future in which the “voice of customers” is stored somewhere in the cloud and can be accessed and analyzed to provide better insight into them. The 2012 Hype Cycle features the following enabling technologies and trends: automatic content recognition, crowdsourcing, big data, social analytics, activity streams, cloud computing, audio mining/speech analytics and text analytics. Gartner believes that the tipping point technologies are privacy backlash and big data.
3D Print It at Home
In this scenario, 3D printing allows consumers to print physical objects, such as toys or housewares, at home, just as they print digital photos today. Combined with 3D scanning, it may be possible to scan certain objects with a smartphone and print a near-duplicate. Analysts predict that 3D printing will take more than five years to mature beyond the niche market.
These are all interesting points – nothing really do to with great marketing – rather great technology. But doesn’t great technology become adopted quicker by greatmarketing? Think about how long we had the potential for iphones before iphones. Or tablets like Wacom before the iPad? Interesting isn’t it. What comes first? UX or technology?
Perhaps on a slightly different note – but ending up the same – Winston Churchill said it best when he said:
“It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link in the chain of destiny can be handled at a time.” – Winston Churchill.